Evaluating the predictive performance of human avalanche forecasts and model predictions in Switzerland

This data set was used in the analysis by Techel et al. Can model-based avalanche forecasts match the discriminatory skill of human danger level forecasts? A comparison from Switzerland. Please note that the title of the preprint was Forecasting avalanche danger: human-made forecasts vs. fully automated model-driven predictions, submitted to Natural Hazards Earth System Sciences on 20 Aug 2024. The final manuscript used data from three forecasting seasons (2022/2023, 2023/2024, 2024/2025) , the preprint two forecasting seasons (2022/2023, 2023/2024) . Currently, the repository contains data from two avalanche forecasting seasons in Switzerland. The third season will be added (to be done, 30 June 2025). Interpolated predictions - The .zip file contains the interpolated predictions for the three models in nowcast- and forecast- mode. This data is needed to reproduce the figures and tables in the submitted preprint. The other data are the raw data underlying the interpolations: - Avalanche forecast by WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, published at 17.00 local time, valid for the following 24 hours and relating to dry snow avalanche conditions. - Model predictions in nowcast- and forecast-mode for three models (danger level, instability, natural avalanche), valid for 12.00 local time - Subset of points extracted from GPS tracks (courtesy of Skitourenguru GmbH) - Avalanche observations - natural avalanches and human-triggered avalanches - Estimates of the snowline - Randomly chosen subset of grid points used for generating reference distributions For details regarding the data sets refer to the publication.

Data and Resources

Additional Info

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Identifier f821b651-245a-47b6-95d4-64c5497b8b21@envidat
Title for URL of the dataset evaluating-the-predictive-performance-of-human-avalanche-forecasts-and-model-predictions-in-swi
Schedule the publication of the dataset -
Issued date August 19, 2024
Modification date June 30, 2025
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Publisher Information EnviDat
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Languages English
URL https://www.envidat.ch/#/metadata/comparing-human-forecasts-with-model-predictions
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Terms of use https://opendata.swiss/terms-of-use#terms_by
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